Kontu / TDJ 0–2 Millbrook: Result & Stats

Kontu / TDJ

0 – 2

Millbrook

2/25/2024

Suomen Cup · Preliminary RoundTalin jalkapallohalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kontu / TDJ1%

×Draw3%

Millbrook96%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kontu / TDJExpected goals in this matchMillbrook

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

6.83

Kontu / TDJ

1.00

Millbrook

6.83

Millbrook creates 583% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.33

creates per match

2.33

11.33

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Kontu / TDJ

0.33

Millbrook

2.33

allows per match

Kontu / TDJ

11.33

Millbrook

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kontu / TDJ+0.00on par

Millbrook+0.00on par

Total goals

Over97
Under3

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kontu / TDJ ↓

Millbrook →

0–00%

0–11%

0–22%

0–34%

0–48%

1–00%

1–11%

1–22%

1–34%

1–48%

2–00%

2–10%

2–21%

2–32%

2–44%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (8%) · grid covers 40% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

99%1%2.5

97%3%3.5

90%10%4.5

77%23%

Double chance

Kontu / TDJ or draw

Kontu / TDJ or Millbrook

97%

Draw or Millbrook

99%

Winning margin

Kontu / TDJ wins by 2+

Millbrook wins by 2+

89%

Team goals

Kontu / TDJ 1+ goals

63%

Kontu / TDJ 2+ goals

26%

Kontu / TDJ 3+ goals

Millbrook 1+ goals

100%

Millbrook 2+ goals

98%

Millbrook 3+ goals

93%

Draw no bet

Kontu / TDJ (draw refunded)

Millbrook (draw refunded)

99%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kontu / TDJ at home — creates 0.33, concedes 11.33 · 3 matches

Millbrook away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kontu / TDJ attack 0.33 + Millbrook defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Millbrook attack 2.33 + Kontu / TDJ defence 11.33 → ÷2 → 6.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 96%?"

Kontu / TDJ scores more

level

Millbrook scores more

96%

Millbrook at 96% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 96% does not mean "Millbrook will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff