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KonnU vs OuPa — Suomen Cup 2018

KonnU
KonnU
FT
4 – 3
OuPa
OuPa
3/12/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundÄänekosken ylipainehalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

KonnU27%
×Draw17%
OuPa57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KonnU
2.50
OuPa
3.58

OuPa creates 43% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

KonnU
2.00
OuPa
2.67

allows per match

KonnU
4.50
OuPa
3.00

finishing

KonnU+0.00on par
OuPa+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

89%Yes
  • Yes89
  • No11

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KonnU ↓

OuPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–24%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–23%
4–33%
4–43%

Most likely 2–3 (6%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
84%16%4.5
70%30%

Double chance

KonnU or draw
43%
KonnU or OuPa
83%
Draw or OuPa
73%

Winning margin

KonnU wins by 2+
14%
OuPa wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

KonnU 1+ goals
92%
KonnU 2+ goals
71%
KonnU 3+ goals
45%
OuPa 1+ goals
97%
OuPa 2+ goals
86%
OuPa 3+ goals
67%

Draw no bet

KonnU (draw refunded)
32%
OuPa (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
87%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KonnU at home — creates 2.00, concedes 4.50 · 4 matches

OuPa away — creates 2.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KonnU attack 2.00 + OuPa defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

OuPa attack 2.67 + KonnU defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 3.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

KonnU scores more
27%
level
17%
OuPa scores more
57%

OuPa at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "OuPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KonnU vs OuPa

KonnU beat OuPa 4-3 in Suomen Cup on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Äänekosken ylipainehalli in Äänekoski.