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KonnU vs Marski — Suomen Cup 2018

KonnU
KonnU
FT
2 – 4
Marski
Marski
2/22/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Preliminary RoundÄänekosken ylipainehalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

KonnU24%
×Draw16%
Marski59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KonnU
2.38
Marski
3.63

Marski creates 53% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

KonnU
2.00
Marski
2.75

allows per match

KonnU
4.50
Marski
2.75

finishing

KonnU+0.00on par
Marski+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

88%Yes
  • Yes88
  • No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KonnU ↓

Marski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–24%
1–35%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–33%
4–43%

Most likely 2–3 (6%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
84%16%4.5
69%31%

Double chance

KonnU or draw
41%
KonnU or Marski
84%
Draw or Marski
76%

Winning margin

KonnU wins by 2+
13%
Marski wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

KonnU 1+ goals
91%
KonnU 2+ goals
68%
KonnU 3+ goals
42%
Marski 1+ goals
97%
Marski 2+ goals
87%
Marski 3+ goals
68%

Draw no bet

KonnU (draw refunded)
29%
Marski (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
86%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KonnU at home — creates 2.00, concedes 4.50 · 4 matches

Marski away — creates 2.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KonnU attack 2.00 + Marski defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.38

Marski attack 2.75 + KonnU defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 3.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

KonnU scores more
24%
level
16%
Marski scores more
59%

Marski at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Marski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: KonnU 2–4 Marski

Marski beat KonnU 4-2 in Suomen Cup on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Äänekosken ylipainehalli in Äänekoski.