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Konkola Blades vs Nkana — Super League 2019

Konkola Blades
Konkola Blades
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Nkana
Nkana
11/8/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Konkola Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Konkola Blades38%
×Draw33%
Nkana29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Konkola Blades
0.98
Nkana
0.81

Konkola Blades creates 21% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 111 away

creates per match

Konkola Blades
0.88
Nkana
0.82

allows per match

Konkola Blades
0.80
Nkana
1.07

finishing

Konkola Blades+0.00on par
Nkana+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Konkola Blades ↓

Nkana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Konkola Blades or draw
71%
Konkola Blades or Nkana
67%
Draw or Nkana
62%

Winning margin

Konkola Blades wins by 2+
14%
Nkana wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Konkola Blades 1+ goals
62%
Konkola Blades 2+ goals
26%
Konkola Blades 3+ goals
8%
Nkana 1+ goals
56%
Nkana 2+ goals
19%
Nkana 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Konkola Blades (draw refunded)
57%
Nkana (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Konkola Blades at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Nkana away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.07 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Konkola Blades attack 0.88 + Nkana defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.98

Nkana attack 0.82 + Konkola Blades defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Konkola Blades scores more
38%
level
33%
Nkana scores more
29%

Konkola Blades at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Konkola Blades will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Konkola Blades vs Nkana

Nkana beat Konkola Blades 2-1 in Super League on November 8, 2023.

The match was played at Konkola Stadium in Chililabombwe.