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Konkola Blades vs Man Utd Zambia Academy — Super League 2019

Konkola Blades
Konkola Blades
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Man Utd Zambia Academy
Man Utd Zambia Academy
8/23/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 2Konkola Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Konkola Blades36%
×Draw32%
Man Utd Zambia Academy32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Konkola Blades
0.98
Man Utd Zambia Academy
0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 77 away

creates per match

Konkola Blades
0.88
Man Utd Zambia Academy
1.03

allows per match

Konkola Blades
0.80
Man Utd Zambia Academy
1.08

finishing

Konkola Blades+0.00on par
Man Utd Zambia Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Konkola Blades ↓

Man Utd Zambia Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Konkola Blades or draw
68%
Konkola Blades or Man Utd Zambia Academy
68%
Draw or Man Utd Zambia Academy
64%

Winning margin

Konkola Blades wins by 2+
13%
Man Utd Zambia Academy wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Konkola Blades 1+ goals
62%
Konkola Blades 2+ goals
26%
Konkola Blades 3+ goals
8%
Man Utd Zambia Academy 1+ goals
60%
Man Utd Zambia Academy 2+ goals
23%
Man Utd Zambia Academy 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Konkola Blades (draw refunded)
52%
Man Utd Zambia Academy (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Konkola Blades at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Man Utd Zambia Academy away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.08 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Konkola Blades attack 0.88 + Man Utd Zambia Academy defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.98

Man Utd Zambia Academy attack 1.03 + Konkola Blades defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Konkola Blades scores more
36%
level
32%
Man Utd Zambia Academy scores more
32%

Konkola Blades at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Konkola Blades will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Konkola Blades 0–2 Man Utd Zambia Academy

Man Utd Zambia Academy beat Konkola Blades 2-0 in Super League on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at Konkola Stadium in Chililabombwe.