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Köniz vs Zürich II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Köniz
Köniz
PST
15:00
Zürich II
Zürich II
11/21/20201. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 16Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Köniz34%
×Draw24%
Zürich II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Köniz
1.46
Zürich II
1.64

Zürich II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 104 away

creates per match

Köniz
1.16
Zürich II
1.53

allows per match

Köniz
1.74
Zürich II
1.77

finishing

Köniz+0.00on par
Zürich II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köniz ↓

Zürich II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Köniz or draw
58%
Köniz or Zürich II
76%
Draw or Zürich II
66%

Winning margin

Köniz wins by 2+
16%
Zürich II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Köniz 1+ goals
77%
Köniz 2+ goals
43%
Köniz 3+ goals
18%
Zürich II 1+ goals
81%
Zürich II 2+ goals
49%
Zürich II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Köniz (draw refunded)
45%
Zürich II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köniz at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

Zürich II away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.77 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köniz attack 1.16 + Zürich II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.46

Zürich II attack 1.53 + Köniz defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Köniz scores more
34%
level
24%
Zürich II scores more
42%

Zürich II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zürich II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Köniz host Zürich II

November 21, 2020: Köniz take on Zürich II in 1. Liga Promotion. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Köniz host Zürich II at Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.