Köniz 2–1 Yverdon Sport II: Result & Stats

Köniz

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Yverdon Sport II

4/5/2025

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Köniz34%

×Draw23%

Yverdon Sport II43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KönizExpected goals in this matchYverdon Sport II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.77

Köniz

1.55

Yverdon Sport II

1.77

Yverdon Sport II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

1.07

creates per match

1.47

2.07

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Köniz

1.07

Yverdon Sport II

1.47

allows per match

Köniz

2.07

Yverdon Sport II

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Köniz+0.00on par

Yverdon Sport II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köniz ↓

Yverdon Sport II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Köniz or draw

57%

Köniz or Yverdon Sport II

77%

Draw or Yverdon Sport II

66%

Winning margin

Köniz wins by 2+

16%

Yverdon Sport II wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Köniz 1+ goals

79%

Köniz 2+ goals

46%

Köniz 3+ goals

20%

Yverdon Sport II 1+ goals

83%

Yverdon Sport II 2+ goals

53%

Yverdon Sport II 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Köniz (draw refunded)

44%

Yverdon Sport II (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köniz at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Yverdon Sport II away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köniz attack 1.07 + Yverdon Sport II defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.55

Yverdon Sport II attack 1.47 + Köniz defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Köniz scores more

34%

level

23%

Yverdon Sport II scores more

43%

Yverdon Sport II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Yverdon Sport II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff