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Köniz vs Yverdon Sport — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Köniz
Köniz
CANC
00:00
Yverdon Sport
Yverdon Sport
3/7/20201. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 19Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Köniz21%
×Draw21%
Yverdon Sport58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Köniz
1.19
Yverdon Sport
2.09

Yverdon Sport creates 76% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

creates per match

Köniz
1.16
Yverdon Sport
2.44

allows per match

Köniz
1.74
Yverdon Sport
1.22

finishing

Köniz+0.00on par
Yverdon Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köniz ↓

Yverdon Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Köniz or draw
42%
Köniz or Yverdon Sport
79%
Draw or Yverdon Sport
79%

Winning margin

Köniz wins by 2+
8%
Yverdon Sport wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Köniz 1+ goals
70%
Köniz 2+ goals
33%
Köniz 3+ goals
12%
Yverdon Sport 1+ goals
88%
Yverdon Sport 2+ goals
62%
Yverdon Sport 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Köniz (draw refunded)
27%
Yverdon Sport (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köniz at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

Yverdon Sport away — creates 2.44, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köniz attack 1.16 + Yverdon Sport defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Yverdon Sport attack 2.44 + Köniz defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Köniz scores more
21%
level
21%
Yverdon Sport scores more
58%

Yverdon Sport at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Yverdon Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Köniz face Yverdon Sport (1. Liga Promotion)

1. Liga Promotion returns with Köniz hosting Yverdon Sport. Match starts March 7, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Köniz host Yverdon Sport at Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.