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Köniz vs Thun II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Köniz
Köniz
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Thun II
Thun II
5/20/20231. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Köniz47%
×Draw24%
Thun II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Köniz
1.66
Thun II
1.26

Köniz creates 32% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 45 away

creates per match

Köniz
1.28
Thun II
1.33

allows per match

Köniz
1.19
Thun II
2.04

finishing

Köniz+0.00on par
Thun II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köniz ↓

Thun II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Köniz or draw
71%
Köniz or Thun II
76%
Draw or Thun II
53%

Winning margin

Köniz wins by 2+
24%
Thun II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Köniz 1+ goals
81%
Köniz 2+ goals
49%
Köniz 3+ goals
23%
Thun II 1+ goals
72%
Thun II 2+ goals
36%
Thun II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Köniz (draw refunded)
62%
Thun II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köniz at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.19 · 43 matches

Thun II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.04 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köniz attack 1.28 + Thun II defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.66

Thun II attack 1.33 + Köniz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Köniz scores more
47%
level
24%
Thun II scores more
29%

Köniz at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Köniz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Köniz vs Thun II

Thun II beat Köniz 4-2 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut in Liebefeld.