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Köniz vs Neuchâtel Xamax II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Köniz
Köniz
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Neuchâtel Xamax II
Neuchâtel Xamax II
3/22/20231. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Köniz37%
×Draw25%
Neuchâtel Xamax II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Köniz
1.44
Neuchâtel Xamax II
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 15 away

creates per match

Köniz
1.28
Neuchâtel Xamax II
1.73

allows per match

Köniz
1.19
Neuchâtel Xamax II
1.60

finishing

Köniz+0.00on par
Neuchâtel Xamax II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köniz ↓

Neuchâtel Xamax II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Köniz or draw
62%
Köniz or Neuchâtel Xamax II
75%
Draw or Neuchâtel Xamax II
63%

Winning margin

Köniz wins by 2+
17%
Neuchâtel Xamax II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Köniz 1+ goals
76%
Köniz 2+ goals
42%
Köniz 3+ goals
18%
Neuchâtel Xamax II 1+ goals
77%
Neuchâtel Xamax II 2+ goals
43%
Neuchâtel Xamax II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Köniz (draw refunded)
49%
Neuchâtel Xamax II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köniz at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.19 · 43 matches

Neuchâtel Xamax II away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köniz attack 1.28 + Neuchâtel Xamax II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.44

Neuchâtel Xamax II attack 1.73 + Köniz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Köniz scores more
37%
level
25%
Neuchâtel Xamax II scores more
38%

Neuchâtel Xamax II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Neuchâtel Xamax II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 2: Köniz 0–0 Neuchâtel Xamax II

Köniz and Neuchâtel Xamax II drew 0-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on March 22, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut in Liebefeld.