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Köniz vs Muri — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Köniz
Köniz
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Muri
Muri
5/6/20231. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Köniz60%
×Draw19%
Muri21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Köniz
2.38
Muri
1.34

Köniz creates 78% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 30 away

creates per match

Köniz
1.28
Muri
1.50

allows per match

Köniz
1.19
Muri
3.47

finishing

Köniz+0.00on par
Muri+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köniz ↓

Muri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Köniz or draw
79%
Köniz or Muri
81%
Draw or Muri
40%

Winning margin

Köniz wins by 2+
38%
Muri wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Köniz 1+ goals
91%
Köniz 2+ goals
68%
Köniz 3+ goals
42%
Muri 1+ goals
74%
Muri 2+ goals
39%
Muri 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Köniz (draw refunded)
74%
Muri (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köniz at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.19 · 43 matches

Muri away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köniz attack 1.28 + Muri defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.38

Muri attack 1.50 + Köniz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Köniz scores more
60%
level
19%
Muri scores more
21%

Köniz at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Köniz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Köniz 0 – 1 Muri

Muri beat Köniz 1-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut in Liebefeld.