Köniz 1–3 Lausanne Sport II: Result & Stats

Köniz

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Lausanne Sport II

11/16/2024

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Köniz25%

×Draw22%

Lausanne Sport II52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KönizExpected goals in this matchLausanne Sport II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.95

Köniz

1.30

Lausanne Sport II

1.95

Lausanne Sport II creates 50% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 58 away

1.07

creates per match

1.83

2.07

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Köniz

1.07

Lausanne Sport II

1.83

allows per match

Köniz

2.07

Lausanne Sport II

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Köniz+0.00on par

Lausanne Sport II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köniz ↓

Lausanne Sport II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Köniz or draw

48%

Köniz or Lausanne Sport II

78%

Draw or Lausanne Sport II

75%

Winning margin

Köniz wins by 2+

11%

Lausanne Sport II wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Köniz 1+ goals

73%

Köniz 2+ goals

37%

Köniz 3+ goals

14%

Lausanne Sport II 1+ goals

86%

Lausanne Sport II 2+ goals

58%

Lausanne Sport II 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Köniz (draw refunded)

33%

Lausanne Sport II (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köniz at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Lausanne Sport II away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.53 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köniz attack 1.07 + Lausanne Sport II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.30

Lausanne Sport II attack 1.83 + Köniz defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Köniz scores more

25%

level

22%

Lausanne Sport II scores more

52%

Lausanne Sport II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lausanne Sport II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff