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Köniz vs Concordia Basel — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Köniz
Köniz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Concordia Basel
Concordia Basel
4/22/20231. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Köniz37%
×Draw24%
Concordia Basel39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Köniz
1.52
Concordia Basel
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 60 away

creates per match

Köniz
1.28
Concordia Basel
1.93

allows per match

Köniz
1.19
Concordia Basel
1.77

finishing

Köniz+0.00on par
Concordia Basel+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köniz ↓

Concordia Basel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Köniz or draw
61%
Köniz or Concordia Basel
76%
Draw or Concordia Basel
63%

Winning margin

Köniz wins by 2+
18%
Concordia Basel wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Köniz 1+ goals
78%
Köniz 2+ goals
45%
Köniz 3+ goals
20%
Concordia Basel 1+ goals
79%
Concordia Basel 2+ goals
46%
Concordia Basel 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Köniz (draw refunded)
49%
Concordia Basel (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köniz at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.19 · 43 matches

Concordia Basel away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.77 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köniz attack 1.28 + Concordia Basel defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.52

Concordia Basel attack 1.93 + Köniz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Köniz scores more
37%
level
24%
Concordia Basel scores more
39%

Concordia Basel at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Concordia Basel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 2: Köniz 2–1 Concordia Basel

Köniz beat Concordia Basel 2-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut in Liebefeld.