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Köniz vs Brühl — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Köniz
Köniz
FT
0 – 3
Brühl
Brühl
10/26/20191. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 14Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Köniz36%
×Draw23%
Brühl41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Köniz
1.55
Brühl
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 105 away

creates per match

Köniz
1.16
Brühl
1.59

allows per match

Köniz
1.74
Brühl
1.95

finishing

Köniz+0.00on par
Brühl+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köniz ↓

Brühl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Köniz or draw
59%
Köniz or Brühl
77%
Draw or Brühl
64%

Winning margin

Köniz wins by 2+
17%
Brühl wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Köniz 1+ goals
79%
Köniz 2+ goals
46%
Köniz 3+ goals
20%
Brühl 1+ goals
81%
Brühl 2+ goals
50%
Brühl 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Köniz (draw refunded)
47%
Brühl (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köniz at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

Brühl away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.95 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köniz attack 1.16 + Brühl defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.55

Brühl attack 1.59 + Köniz defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Köniz scores more
36%
level
23%
Brühl scores more
41%

Brühl at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Brühl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Köniz 0 – 3 Brühl

Brühl beat Köniz 3-0 in 1. Liga Promotion on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut in Liebefeld.