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Köniz vs Black Stars — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Köniz
Köniz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Black Stars
Black Stars
4/20/20241. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Köniz40%
×Draw24%
Black Stars36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Köniz
1.56
Black Stars
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 60 away

creates per match

Köniz
1.28
Black Stars
1.77

allows per match

Köniz
1.19
Black Stars
1.85

finishing

Köniz+0.00on par
Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köniz ↓

Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Köniz or draw
64%
Köniz or Black Stars
76%
Draw or Black Stars
60%

Winning margin

Köniz wins by 2+
20%
Black Stars wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Köniz 1+ goals
79%
Köniz 2+ goals
46%
Köniz 3+ goals
21%
Black Stars 1+ goals
77%
Black Stars 2+ goals
43%
Black Stars 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Köniz (draw refunded)
52%
Black Stars (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köniz at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.19 · 43 matches

Black Stars away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.85 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köniz attack 1.28 + Black Stars defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.56

Black Stars attack 1.77 + Köniz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Köniz scores more
40%
level
24%
Black Stars scores more
36%

Köniz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Köniz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Köniz vs Black Stars

Köniz beat Black Stars 2-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut in Liebefeld.