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Köniz vs Bavois — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Köniz
Köniz
CANC
14:00
Bavois
Bavois
5/9/20201. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 28Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Köniz36%
×Draw24%
Bavois39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Köniz
1.46
Bavois
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 105 away

creates per match

Köniz
1.18
Bavois
1.44

allows per match

Köniz
1.59
Bavois
1.75

finishing

Köniz+0.00on par
Bavois+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köniz ↓

Bavois →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Köniz or draw
61%
Köniz or Bavois
76%
Draw or Bavois
64%

Winning margin

Köniz wins by 2+
17%
Bavois wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Köniz 1+ goals
77%
Köniz 2+ goals
43%
Köniz 3+ goals
18%
Bavois 1+ goals
78%
Bavois 2+ goals
45%
Bavois 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Köniz (draw refunded)
48%
Bavois (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köniz at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

Bavois away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.75 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köniz attack 1.18 + Bavois defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.46

Bavois attack 1.44 + Köniz defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Köniz scores more
36%
level
24%
Bavois scores more
39%

Bavois at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bavois will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Köniz face Bavois (1. Liga Promotion)

1. Liga Promotion returns with Köniz hosting Bavois. Match starts May 9, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Köniz host Bavois at Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.