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Köniz vs Basel II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Köniz
Köniz
PST
14:00
Basel II
Basel II
4/3/20211. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 22Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Köniz33%
×Draw23%
Basel II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Köniz
1.46
Basel II
1.72

Basel II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 106 away

creates per match

Köniz
1.16
Basel II
1.70

allows per match

Köniz
1.74
Basel II
1.75

finishing

Köniz+0.00on par
Basel II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köniz ↓

Basel II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Köniz or draw
56%
Köniz or Basel II
77%
Draw or Basel II
67%

Winning margin

Köniz wins by 2+
15%
Basel II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Köniz 1+ goals
77%
Köniz 2+ goals
43%
Köniz 3+ goals
18%
Basel II 1+ goals
82%
Basel II 2+ goals
51%
Basel II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Köniz (draw refunded)
43%
Basel II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köniz at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

Basel II away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.75 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köniz attack 1.16 + Basel II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.46

Basel II attack 1.70 + Köniz defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Köniz scores more
33%
level
23%
Basel II scores more
44%

Basel II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Basel II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Köniz face Basel II (1. Liga Promotion)

1. Liga Promotion returns with Köniz hosting Basel II. Match starts April 3, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Köniz host Basel II at Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.