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Basel II vs Köniz — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Basel II
Basel II
FT
2 – 1
Köniz
Köniz
11/2/20191. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 15St. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Basel II57%
×Draw19%
Köniz23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Basel II
2.38
Köniz
1.47

Basel II creates 62% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 20 away

creates per match

Basel II
1.90
Köniz
1.20

allows per match

Basel II
1.74
Köniz
2.85

finishing

Basel II+0.00on par
Köniz+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Basel II ↓

Köniz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Basel II or draw
77%
Basel II or Köniz
81%
Draw or Köniz
43%

Winning margin

Basel II wins by 2+
36%
Köniz wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Basel II 1+ goals
91%
Basel II 2+ goals
68%
Basel II 3+ goals
42%
Köniz 1+ goals
77%
Köniz 2+ goals
43%
Köniz 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Basel II (draw refunded)
71%
Köniz (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Basel II at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.74 · 103 matches

Köniz away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Basel II attack 1.90 + Köniz defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.38

Köniz attack 1.20 + Basel II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Basel II scores more
57%
level
19%
Köniz scores more
23%

Basel II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Basel II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Basel II 2–1 Köniz

Basel II beat Köniz 2-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on November 2, 2019.

The match was played at St. Jakob-Park in Basel.