Koninklijke HFC 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam II

Koninklijke HFC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sparta Rotterdam II

R. Heeremans 59'

R. Mwenda 51'

D. Lourens 90'

8/16/2025

Tweede Divisie · Round 1Sportpark Spanjaardslaan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Koninklijke HFC45%

×Draw24%

Sparta Rotterdam II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Koninklijke HFCExpected goals in this matchSparta Rotterdam II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.39

Koninklijke HFC

1.71

Sparta Rotterdam II

1.39

Koninklijke HFC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 101 away

1.57

creates per match

1.78

1.00

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Koninklijke HFC

1.57

Sparta Rotterdam II

1.78

allows per match

Koninklijke HFC

1.00

Sparta Rotterdam II

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Koninklijke HFC+0.00on par

Sparta Rotterdam II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koninklijke HFC ↓

Sparta Rotterdam II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Koninklijke HFC or draw

69%

Koninklijke HFC or Sparta Rotterdam II

76%

Draw or Sparta Rotterdam II

55%

Winning margin

Koninklijke HFC wins by 2+

24%

Sparta Rotterdam II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Koninklijke HFC 1+ goals

82%

Koninklijke HFC 2+ goals

51%

Koninklijke HFC 3+ goals

24%

Sparta Rotterdam II 1+ goals

75%

Sparta Rotterdam II 2+ goals

40%

Sparta Rotterdam II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Koninklijke HFC (draw refunded)

59%

Sparta Rotterdam II (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koninklijke HFC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.00 · 97 matches

Sparta Rotterdam II away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.84 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koninklijke HFC attack 1.57 + Sparta Rotterdam II defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.71

Sparta Rotterdam II attack 1.78 + Koninklijke HFC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Koninklijke HFC scores more

45%

level

24%

Sparta Rotterdam II scores more

31%

Koninklijke HFC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Koninklijke HFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

Alvaro Henry

51'

R. Mwenda↳ T. de Boer

59'

R. Heeremans

66'

Ian Beelen

69'

J. Kors← R. Mwenda

69'

Y. el Meftahi← V. Guit

69'

K. Razak← E. Gorisson

73'

L. de Wilde← D. Ladan

73'

T. Bijen← I. Beelen

84'

D. Hanzen← A. Henry

90+4'

Quincy Hoeve

90+3'

S. Fransen← T. Borrie

90'

D. Lourens↳ Y. el Meftahi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KoninklijkeSparta

Overview

47%Possession53%

12Total Shots10

4Corners8

Shots

12Total Shots10

4On Target6

8Off Target4

Passing

47%Possession53%

1Total Passes1

100%Pass Accuracy100%

Discipline

1Yellow Cards2