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Koninklijke HFC vs Rijnsburgse Boys — Tweede Divisie 2019

Koninklijke HFC
Koninklijke HFC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Rijnsburgse Boys
Rijnsburgse Boys
10/19/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 10Sportpark Heemstede

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Koninklijke HFC40%
×Draw24%
Rijnsburgse Boys36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Koninklijke HFC
1.57
Rijnsburgse Boys
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 99 away

creates per match

Koninklijke HFC
1.51
Rijnsburgse Boys
1.95

allows per match

Koninklijke HFC
1.02
Rijnsburgse Boys
1.64

finishing

Koninklijke HFC+0.00on par
Rijnsburgse Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koninklijke HFC ↓

Rijnsburgse Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Koninklijke HFC or draw
64%
Koninklijke HFC or Rijnsburgse Boys
76%
Draw or Rijnsburgse Boys
60%

Winning margin

Koninklijke HFC wins by 2+
20%
Rijnsburgse Boys wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Koninklijke HFC 1+ goals
79%
Koninklijke HFC 2+ goals
46%
Koninklijke HFC 3+ goals
21%
Rijnsburgse Boys 1+ goals
77%
Rijnsburgse Boys 2+ goals
43%
Rijnsburgse Boys 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Koninklijke HFC (draw refunded)
53%
Rijnsburgse Boys (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koninklijke HFC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.02 · 98 matches

Rijnsburgse Boys away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.64 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koninklijke HFC attack 1.51 + Rijnsburgse Boys defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.57

Rijnsburgse Boys attack 1.95 + Koninklijke HFC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Koninklijke HFC scores more
40%
level
24%
Rijnsburgse Boys scores more
36%

Koninklijke HFC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Koninklijke HFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Koninklijke HFC vs Rijnsburgse Boys

Koninklijke HFC and Rijnsburgse Boys drew 1-1 in Tweede Divisie on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Heemstede in Heemstede.