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Koninklijke HFC vs Katwijk — Tweede Divisie 2019

Koninklijke HFC
Koninklijke HFC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Katwijk
Katwijk
11/29/2025Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 15Sportpark Groenendaal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Koninklijke HFC38%
×Draw25%
Katwijk37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Koninklijke HFC
1.42
Katwijk
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 100 away

creates per match

Koninklijke HFC
1.51
Katwijk
1.75

allows per match

Koninklijke HFC
1.02
Katwijk
1.32

finishing

Koninklijke HFC+0.00on par
Katwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koninklijke HFC ↓

Katwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Koninklijke HFC or draw
63%
Koninklijke HFC or Katwijk
75%
Draw or Katwijk
62%

Winning margin

Koninklijke HFC wins by 2+
18%
Katwijk wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Koninklijke HFC 1+ goals
76%
Koninklijke HFC 2+ goals
41%
Koninklijke HFC 3+ goals
17%
Katwijk 1+ goals
75%
Katwijk 2+ goals
40%
Katwijk 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Koninklijke HFC (draw refunded)
51%
Katwijk (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koninklijke HFC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.02 · 98 matches

Katwijk away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.32 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koninklijke HFC attack 1.51 + Katwijk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.42

Katwijk attack 1.75 + Koninklijke HFC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Koninklijke HFC scores more
38%
level
25%
Katwijk scores more
37%

Koninklijke HFC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Koninklijke HFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Koninklijke HFC vs Katwijk

Katwijk beat Koninklijke HFC 2-0 in Tweede Divisie on November 29, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Groenendaal.