Koninklijke HFC 2–0 Ijsselmeervogels

Koninklijke HFC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ijsselmeervogels

J. Hulleman 69'

J. Noordmans 15'

10/1/2022

Tweede Divisie · Round 9Sportpark Spanjaardslaan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Koninklijke HFC47%

×Draw24%

Ijsselmeervogels29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Koninklijke HFCExpected goals in this matchIjsselmeervogels

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.27

Koninklijke HFC

1.70

Ijsselmeervogels

1.27

Koninklijke HFC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 70 away

1.57

creates per match

1.54

1.00

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Koninklijke HFC

1.57

Ijsselmeervogels

1.54

allows per match

Koninklijke HFC

1.00

Ijsselmeervogels

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Koninklijke HFC+0.00on par

Ijsselmeervogels+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koninklijke HFC ↓

Ijsselmeervogels →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Koninklijke HFC or draw

71%

Koninklijke HFC or Ijsselmeervogels

76%

Draw or Ijsselmeervogels

53%

Winning margin

Koninklijke HFC wins by 2+

25%

Ijsselmeervogels wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Koninklijke HFC 1+ goals

82%

Koninklijke HFC 2+ goals

51%

Koninklijke HFC 3+ goals

24%

Ijsselmeervogels 1+ goals

72%

Ijsselmeervogels 2+ goals

36%

Ijsselmeervogels 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Koninklijke HFC (draw refunded)

62%

Ijsselmeervogels (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koninklijke HFC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.00 · 97 matches

Ijsselmeervogels away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.83 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koninklijke HFC attack 1.57 + Ijsselmeervogels defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.70

Ijsselmeervogels attack 1.54 + Koninklijke HFC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Koninklijke HFC scores more

47%

level

24%

Ijsselmeervogels scores more

29%

Koninklijke HFC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Koninklijke HFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

J. Noordmans

38'

W. Boer

46'

K. Tadmine← M. El Haddouti

48'

G. Offerhaus

64'

P. van Arnhem← J. Ruizendaal

69'

J. Hulleman↳ K. Tros

73'

K. Visser← B. Martis

80'

M. van den Ban← Z. Eddahchouri

85'

J. Kors← Q. Dekkers

85'

R. Castien← J. Hulleman

85'

A. Haian← D. van Son

85'

M. Ramdas← W. Boer

90+1'

R. Heeremans← A. Morgan

Koninklijke

Ijsselmeervogels

1

Schaap

2

▼

Son

4

▼

Boer

12

Have

5

▼

3

8

7

14

▼

Ruizendaa

11

Sterling

34

▼

Haddouti

1

Michaelis

2

Hols

16

▼

Morgan

5

Hilton

75

▼

Dekkers

18

Offerhaus

14

⚽

Noordmans

4

Vlak

23

⚽

▼

Hulleman

11

▼

Eddahchou

6

A

Tros

Manager: G. Tamerus

80'▲M. van den Ban←▼Z. Eddahchouri

85'▲J. Kors←▼Q. Dekkers

85'▲R. Castien←▼J. Hulleman

90+1'▲R. Heeremans←▼A. Morgan

Koninklijke HFC substitutes

10Ban15Kors8Castien22Heeremans77Bos26Boer39Bwanda

Manager: G. de Gunst

46'▲K. Tadmine←▼M. El Haddouti

64'▲P. van Arnhem←▼J. Ruizendaal

73'▲K. Visser←▼B. Martis

85'▲A. Haian←▼D. van Son

85'▲M. Ramdas←▼W. Boer

Ijsselmeervogels substitutes

10Tadmine6Arnhem9Visser16Haian22Ramdas18Rosheuvel25List