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Koninklijke HFC vs Excelsior Maassluis — Tweede Divisie 2019

Koninklijke HFC
Koninklijke HFC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Excelsior Maassluis
Excelsior Maassluis
1/31/2026Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 21Sportpark Spanjaardslaan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Koninklijke HFC54%
×Draw23%
Excelsior Maassluis23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Koninklijke HFC
1.80
Excelsior Maassluis
1.09

Koninklijke HFC creates 65% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 104 away

creates per match

Koninklijke HFC
1.51
Excelsior Maassluis
1.16

allows per match

Koninklijke HFC
1.02
Excelsior Maassluis
2.09

finishing

Koninklijke HFC+0.00on par
Excelsior Maassluis+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koninklijke HFC ↓

Excelsior Maassluis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Koninklijke HFC or draw
77%
Koninklijke HFC or Excelsior Maassluis
77%
Draw or Excelsior Maassluis
46%

Winning margin

Koninklijke HFC wins by 2+
30%
Excelsior Maassluis wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Koninklijke HFC 1+ goals
83%
Koninklijke HFC 2+ goals
54%
Koninklijke HFC 3+ goals
27%
Excelsior Maassluis 1+ goals
66%
Excelsior Maassluis 2+ goals
30%
Excelsior Maassluis 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Koninklijke HFC (draw refunded)
70%
Excelsior Maassluis (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koninklijke HFC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.02 · 98 matches

Excelsior Maassluis away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.09 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koninklijke HFC attack 1.51 + Excelsior Maassluis defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.80

Excelsior Maassluis attack 1.16 + Koninklijke HFC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Koninklijke HFC scores more
54%
level
23%
Excelsior Maassluis scores more
23%

Koninklijke HFC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Koninklijke HFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: Koninklijke HFC 1–0 Excelsior Maassluis

Koninklijke HFC beat Excelsior Maassluis 1-0 in Tweede Divisie on January 31, 2026.

The match was played at Sportpark Spanjaardslaan in Haarlem.