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Koninklijke HFC vs Almere City II — Tweede Divisie 2019

Koninklijke HFC
Koninklijke HFC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Almere City II
Almere City II
11/23/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 14Sportpark Heemstede

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Koninklijke HFC42%
×Draw24%
Almere City II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Koninklijke HFC
1.60
Almere City II
1.43

Koninklijke HFC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 51 away

creates per match

Koninklijke HFC
1.51
Almere City II
1.86

allows per match

Koninklijke HFC
1.00
Almere City II
1.69

finishing

Koninklijke HFC+0.00on par
Almere City II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Koninklijke HFC ↓

Almere City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Koninklijke HFC or draw
66%
Koninklijke HFC or Almere City II
76%
Draw or Almere City II
58%

Winning margin

Koninklijke HFC wins by 2+
21%
Almere City II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Koninklijke HFC 1+ goals
80%
Koninklijke HFC 2+ goals
47%
Koninklijke HFC 3+ goals
22%
Almere City II 1+ goals
76%
Almere City II 2+ goals
42%
Almere City II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Koninklijke HFC (draw refunded)
55%
Almere City II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Koninklijke HFC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.00 · 96 matches

Almere City II away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Koninklijke HFC attack 1.51 + Almere City II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.60

Almere City II attack 1.86 + Koninklijke HFC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Koninklijke HFC scores more
42%
level
24%
Almere City II scores more
34%

Koninklijke HFC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Koninklijke HFC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Koninklijke HFC vs Almere City II

Koninklijke HFC beat Almere City II 2-1 in Tweede Divisie on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Heemstede in Heemstede.