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Kongsvinger vs Senja — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Kongsvinger
Kongsvinger
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Senja
Senja
9/19/20212. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Gjemselund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kongsvinger86%
×Draw9%
Senja5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kongsvinger
3.48
Senja
0.74

Kongsvinger creates 370% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 21 away

creates per match

Kongsvinger
3.85
Senja
0.57

allows per match

Kongsvinger
0.92
Senja
3.10

finishing

Kongsvinger+0.00on par
Senja+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kongsvinger ↓

Senja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Kongsvinger or draw
95%
Kongsvinger or Senja
91%
Draw or Senja
14%

Winning margin

Kongsvinger wins by 2+
70%
Senja wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Kongsvinger 1+ goals
97%
Kongsvinger 2+ goals
85%
Kongsvinger 3+ goals
65%
Senja 1+ goals
52%
Senja 2+ goals
17%
Senja 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kongsvinger (draw refunded)
95%
Senja (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kongsvinger at home — creates 3.85, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Senja away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kongsvinger attack 3.85 + Senja defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 3.48

Senja attack 0.57 + Kongsvinger defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Kongsvinger scores more
86%
level
9%
Senja scores more
5%

Kongsvinger at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Kongsvinger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kongsvinger vs Senja

Kongsvinger beat Senja 5-0 in 2. Division - Group 1 on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Gjemselund Stadion in Kongsvinger.