Kongsvinger 2–4 Kristiansund BK: Result & Stats

Kongsvinger

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Kristiansund BK

12/3/2023

1. Division · Promotion Play-offs - FinalGjemselund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kongsvinger39%

×Draw23%

Kristiansund BK38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KongsvingerExpected goals in this matchKristiansund BK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.67

Kongsvinger

1.71

Kristiansund BK

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 16 away

1.91

creates per match

1.94

1.40

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Kongsvinger

1.91

Kristiansund BK

1.94

allows per match

Kongsvinger

1.40

Kristiansund BK

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kongsvinger+0.00on par

Kristiansund BK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kongsvinger ↓

Kristiansund BK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Kongsvinger or draw

62%

Kongsvinger or Kristiansund BK

77%

Draw or Kristiansund BK

61%

Winning margin

Kongsvinger wins by 2+

20%

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Kongsvinger 1+ goals

82%

Kongsvinger 2+ goals

51%

Kongsvinger 3+ goals

24%

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals

81%

Kristiansund BK 2+ goals

50%

Kristiansund BK 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Kongsvinger (draw refunded)

51%

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kongsvinger at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.40 · 113 matches

Kristiansund BK away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kongsvinger attack 1.91 + Kristiansund BK defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.71

Kristiansund BK attack 1.94 + Kongsvinger defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kongsvinger scores more

39%

level

23%

Kristiansund BK scores more

38%

Kongsvinger at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kongsvinger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff