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Kongsvinger vs Ham-Kam — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Kongsvinger
Kongsvinger
CANC
00:00
Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam
2/17/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Gjemselund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kongsvinger55%
×Draw21%
Ham-Kam24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kongsvinger
2.08
Ham-Kam
1.30

Kongsvinger creates 60% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Kongsvinger
2.23
Ham-Kam
1.15

allows per match

Kongsvinger
1.46
Ham-Kam
1.92

finishing

Kongsvinger+0.00on par
Ham-Kam+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kongsvinger ↓

Ham-Kam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Kongsvinger or draw
76%
Kongsvinger or Ham-Kam
79%
Draw or Ham-Kam
45%

Winning margin

Kongsvinger wins by 2+
33%
Ham-Kam wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kongsvinger 1+ goals
87%
Kongsvinger 2+ goals
61%
Kongsvinger 3+ goals
34%
Ham-Kam 1+ goals
73%
Ham-Kam 2+ goals
37%
Ham-Kam 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kongsvinger (draw refunded)
70%
Ham-Kam (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kongsvinger at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Ham-Kam away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kongsvinger attack 2.23 + Ham-Kam defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.08

Ham-Kam attack 1.15 + Kongsvinger defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kongsvinger scores more
55%
level
21%
Ham-Kam scores more
24%

Kongsvinger at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kongsvinger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kongsvinger host Ham-Kam

February 17, 2024: Kongsvinger take on Ham-Kam in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kongsvinger host Ham-Kam at Gjemselund Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.