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Kongsvinger II vs Toten — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Kongsvinger II
Kongsvinger II
FT
1 – 2
Toten
Toten
10/10/20213. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 10Gjemselund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kongsvinger II69%
×Draw17%
Toten14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kongsvinger II
2.58
Toten
1.08

Kongsvinger II creates 139% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kongsvinger II
2.50
Toten
1.33

allows per match

Kongsvinger II
0.83
Toten
2.67

finishing

Kongsvinger II+0.00on par
Toten+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kongsvinger II ↓

Toten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Kongsvinger II or draw
86%
Kongsvinger II or Toten
83%
Draw or Toten
31%

Winning margin

Kongsvinger II wins by 2+
47%
Toten wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kongsvinger II 1+ goals
92%
Kongsvinger II 2+ goals
72%
Kongsvinger II 3+ goals
47%
Toten 1+ goals
66%
Toten 2+ goals
29%
Toten 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kongsvinger II (draw refunded)
83%
Toten (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kongsvinger II at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Toten away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kongsvinger II attack 2.50 + Toten defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.58

Toten attack 1.33 + Kongsvinger II defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Kongsvinger II scores more
69%
level
17%
Toten scores more
14%

Kongsvinger II at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Kongsvinger II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kongsvinger II vs Toten

Toten beat Kongsvinger II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Gjemselund Stadion in Kongsvinger.