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Kongsvinger II vs Rommen — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Kongsvinger II
Kongsvinger II
CANC
14:00
Rommen
Rommen
8/15/20203. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 2Gjemselund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kongsvinger II80%
×Draw13%
Rommen6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kongsvinger II
2.68
Rommen
0.63

Kongsvinger II creates 325% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kongsvinger II
2.50
Rommen
0.43

allows per match

Kongsvinger II
0.83
Rommen
2.86

finishing

Kongsvinger II+0.00on par
Rommen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kongsvinger II ↓

Rommen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Kongsvinger II or draw
94%
Kongsvinger II or Rommen
87%
Draw or Rommen
20%

Winning margin

Kongsvinger II wins by 2+
59%
Rommen wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Kongsvinger II 1+ goals
93%
Kongsvinger II 2+ goals
74%
Kongsvinger II 3+ goals
49%
Rommen 1+ goals
47%
Rommen 2+ goals
13%
Rommen 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kongsvinger II (draw refunded)
93%
Rommen (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kongsvinger II at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Rommen away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kongsvinger II attack 2.50 + Rommen defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.68

Rommen attack 0.43 + Kongsvinger II defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Kongsvinger II scores more
80%
level
13%
Rommen scores more
6%

Kongsvinger II at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Kongsvinger II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kongsvinger II vs Rommen — Match Preview

Kongsvinger II face Rommen on August 15, 2020 in this 3. Division - Girone 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kongsvinger II host Rommen at Gjemselund Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.