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Kongsvinger II vs HamKam II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Kongsvinger II
Kongsvinger II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
HamKam II
HamKam II
6/17/20243. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 11Gjemselund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kongsvinger II48%
×Draw20%
HamKam II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kongsvinger II
2.34
HamKam II
1.89

Kongsvinger II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Kongsvinger II
1.69
HamKam II
2.23

allows per match

Kongsvinger II
1.54
HamKam II
3.00

finishing

Kongsvinger II+0.00on par
HamKam II+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kongsvinger II ↓

HamKam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Kongsvinger II or draw
68%
Kongsvinger II or HamKam II
80%
Draw or HamKam II
52%

Winning margin

Kongsvinger II wins by 2+
29%
HamKam II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kongsvinger II 1+ goals
90%
Kongsvinger II 2+ goals
67%
Kongsvinger II 3+ goals
41%
HamKam II 1+ goals
85%
HamKam II 2+ goals
56%
HamKam II 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Kongsvinger II (draw refunded)
60%
HamKam II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kongsvinger II at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

HamKam II away — creates 2.23, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kongsvinger II attack 1.69 + HamKam II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.34

HamKam II attack 2.23 + Kongsvinger II defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kongsvinger II scores more
48%
level
20%
HamKam II scores more
32%

Kongsvinger II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kongsvinger II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 6: Kongsvinger II 2–1 HamKam II

Kongsvinger II beat HamKam II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on June 17, 2024.

The match was played at Gjemselund Stadion in Kongsvinger.