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Kongsvinger II vs Grorud II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Kongsvinger II
Kongsvinger II
FT
1 – 2
Grorud II
Grorud II
8/29/20213. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 4Gjemselund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kongsvinger II62%
×Draw19%
Grorud II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kongsvinger II
2.48
Grorud II
1.35

Kongsvinger II creates 84% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 33 away

creates per match

Kongsvinger II
2.50
Grorud II
1.88

allows per match

Kongsvinger II
0.83
Grorud II
2.45

finishing

Kongsvinger II+0.00on par
Grorud II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kongsvinger II ↓

Grorud II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Kongsvinger II or draw
80%
Kongsvinger II or Grorud II
81%
Draw or Grorud II
38%

Winning margin

Kongsvinger II wins by 2+
40%
Grorud II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kongsvinger II 1+ goals
92%
Kongsvinger II 2+ goals
70%
Kongsvinger II 3+ goals
44%
Grorud II 1+ goals
74%
Grorud II 2+ goals
39%
Grorud II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kongsvinger II (draw refunded)
76%
Grorud II (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kongsvinger II at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Grorud II away — creates 1.88, concedes 2.45 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kongsvinger II attack 2.50 + Grorud II defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.48

Grorud II attack 1.88 + Kongsvinger II defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Kongsvinger II scores more
62%
level
19%
Grorud II scores more
20%

Kongsvinger II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Kongsvinger II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Kongsvinger II 1–2 Grorud II

Grorud II beat Kongsvinger II 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Gjemselund Stadion in Kongsvinger.