Kongsvinger II 6–2 Åssiden IF: Result & Stats

Kongsvinger II

FT

6 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Åssiden IF

5/25/2025

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 7Gjemselund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kongsvinger II60%

×Draw18%

Åssiden IF22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kongsvinger IIExpected goals in this matchÅssiden IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.85

1.73

Kongsvinger II

2.85

Åssiden IF

1.73

Kongsvinger II creates 65% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

2.85

creates per match

1.46

2.00

allows per match

2.85

creates per match

Kongsvinger II

2.85

Åssiden IF

1.46

allows per match

Kongsvinger II

2.00

Åssiden IF

2.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kongsvinger II+0.00on par

Åssiden IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kongsvinger II ↓

Åssiden IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Kongsvinger II or draw

78%

Kongsvinger II or Åssiden IF

82%

Draw or Åssiden IF

40%

Winning margin

Kongsvinger II wins by 2+

40%

Åssiden IF wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kongsvinger II 1+ goals

94%

Kongsvinger II 2+ goals

77%

Kongsvinger II 3+ goals

53%

Åssiden IF 1+ goals

82%

Åssiden IF 2+ goals

52%

Åssiden IF 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Kongsvinger II (draw refunded)

73%

Åssiden IF (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kongsvinger II at home — creates 2.85, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

Åssiden IF away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kongsvinger II attack 2.85 + Åssiden IF defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.85

Åssiden IF attack 1.46 + Kongsvinger II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kongsvinger II scores more

60%

level

18%

Åssiden IF scores more

22%

Kongsvinger II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kongsvinger II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff