Kongahälla 1–0 Jonsered: Result & Stats

Kongahälla

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jonsered

M. C. Aliaga 7'

5/8/2026

Division 2 - Västra Götaland · Västra Götaland - 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kongahälla33%

×Draw23%

Jonsered44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KongahällaExpected goals in this matchJonsered

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.72

Kongahälla

1.46

Jonsered

1.72

Jonsered creates 18% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 33 away

0.86

creates per match

1.58

1.86

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Kongahälla

0.86

Jonsered

1.58

allows per match

Kongahälla

1.86

Jonsered

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kongahälla+0.00on par

Jonsered+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kongahälla ↓

Jonsered →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Kongahälla or draw

56%

Kongahälla or Jonsered

77%

Draw or Jonsered

67%

Winning margin

Kongahälla wins by 2+

15%

Jonsered wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Kongahälla 1+ goals

77%

Kongahälla 2+ goals

43%

Kongahälla 3+ goals

18%

Jonsered 1+ goals

82%

Jonsered 2+ goals

51%

Jonsered 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Kongahälla (draw refunded)

43%

Jonsered (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kongahälla at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Jonsered away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.06 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kongahälla attack 0.86 + Jonsered defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.46

Jonsered attack 1.58 + Kongahälla defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kongahälla scores more

33%

level

23%

Jonsered scores more

44%

Jonsered at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jonsered will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

M. C. Aliaga

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff