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Kompozit vs SKA Khabarovsk II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Kompozit
Kompozit
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SKA Khabarovsk II
SKA Khabarovsk II
10/15/2023Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 13Stadion Znamya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kompozit56%
×Draw22%
SKA Khabarovsk II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kompozit
2.00
SKA Khabarovsk II
1.18

Kompozit creates 69% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 76 away

creates per match

Kompozit
2.05
SKA Khabarovsk II
1.13

allows per match

Kompozit
1.23
SKA Khabarovsk II
1.96

finishing

Kompozit+0.00on par
SKA Khabarovsk II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kompozit ↓

SKA Khabarovsk II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kompozit or draw
78%
Kompozit or SKA Khabarovsk II
78%
Draw or SKA Khabarovsk II
44%

Winning margin

Kompozit wins by 2+
33%
SKA Khabarovsk II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kompozit 1+ goals
86%
Kompozit 2+ goals
59%
Kompozit 3+ goals
32%
SKA Khabarovsk II 1+ goals
69%
SKA Khabarovsk II 2+ goals
33%
SKA Khabarovsk II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kompozit (draw refunded)
72%
SKA Khabarovsk II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kompozit at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

SKA Khabarovsk II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.96 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kompozit attack 2.05 + SKA Khabarovsk II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.00

SKA Khabarovsk II attack 1.13 + Kompozit defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kompozit scores more
56%
level
22%
SKA Khabarovsk II scores more
22%

Kompozit at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kompozit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kompozit vs SKA Khabarovsk II

Kompozit beat SKA Khabarovsk II 2-0 in Second League - Group 3 on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Znamya in Noginsk.