Kompozit 4–0 Saturn Ramenskoye: Result & Stats

Kompozit

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Saturn Ramenskoye

11/12/2023

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 17Stadion Znamya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kompozit50%

×Draw23%

Saturn Ramenskoye27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KompozitExpected goals in this matchSaturn Ramenskoye

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.27

Kompozit

1.81

Saturn Ramenskoye

1.27

Kompozit creates 43% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 60 away

2.05

creates per match

1.32

1.23

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Kompozit

2.05

Saturn Ramenskoye

1.32

allows per match

Kompozit

1.23

Saturn Ramenskoye

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kompozit+0.00on par

Saturn Ramenskoye+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kompozit ↓

Saturn Ramenskoye →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Kompozit or draw

73%

Kompozit or Saturn Ramenskoye

77%

Draw or Saturn Ramenskoye

50%

Winning margin

Kompozit wins by 2+

28%

Saturn Ramenskoye wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kompozit 1+ goals

84%

Kompozit 2+ goals

54%

Kompozit 3+ goals

27%

Saturn Ramenskoye 1+ goals

72%

Saturn Ramenskoye 2+ goals

36%

Saturn Ramenskoye 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kompozit (draw refunded)

65%

Saturn Ramenskoye (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kompozit at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

Saturn Ramenskoye away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.57 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kompozit attack 2.05 + Saturn Ramenskoye defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.81

Saturn Ramenskoye attack 1.32 + Kompozit defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kompozit scores more

50%

level

23%

Saturn Ramenskoye scores more

27%

Kompozit at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kompozit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff