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Kompozit vs Orel — Second League - Group 3 2020

Kompozit
Kompozit
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Orel
Orel
4/21/2024Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 3Stadion Znamya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kompozit51%
×Draw23%
Orel26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kompozit
1.82
Orel
1.25

Kompozit creates 46% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 35 away

creates per match

Kompozit
2.05
Orel
1.26

allows per match

Kompozit
1.23
Orel
1.60

finishing

Kompozit+0.00on par
Orel+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kompozit ↓

Orel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Kompozit or draw
74%
Kompozit or Orel
77%
Draw or Orel
49%

Winning margin

Kompozit wins by 2+
28%
Orel wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kompozit 1+ goals
84%
Kompozit 2+ goals
54%
Kompozit 3+ goals
27%
Orel 1+ goals
71%
Orel 2+ goals
36%
Orel 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kompozit (draw refunded)
66%
Orel (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kompozit at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

Orel away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kompozit attack 2.05 + Orel defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.82

Orel attack 1.26 + Kompozit defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kompozit scores more
51%
level
23%
Orel scores more
26%

Kompozit at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kompozit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kompozit vs Orel

Kompozit beat Orel 3-2 in Second League - Group 3 on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Znamya in Noginsk.