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Kompozit vs Kosmos Dolgoprudny — Second League - Group 3 2020

Kompozit
Kompozit
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
10/26/2024Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 29Sportkompleks Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kompozit42%
×Draw24%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kompozit
1.64
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.45

Kompozit creates 13% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 39 away

creates per match

Kompozit
2.05
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.67

allows per match

Kompozit
1.23
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.23

finishing

Kompozit+0.00on par
Kosmos Dolgoprudny+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kompozit ↓

Kosmos Dolgoprudny →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kompozit or draw
66%
Kompozit or Kosmos Dolgoprudny
76%
Draw or Kosmos Dolgoprudny
58%

Winning margin

Kompozit wins by 2+
21%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kompozit 1+ goals
81%
Kompozit 2+ goals
49%
Kompozit 3+ goals
23%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny 1+ goals
77%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny 2+ goals
42%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kompozit (draw refunded)
55%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kompozit at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

Kosmos Dolgoprudny away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kompozit attack 2.05 + Kosmos Dolgoprudny defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.64

Kosmos Dolgoprudny attack 1.67 + Kompozit defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kompozit scores more
42%
level
24%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny scores more
34%

Kompozit at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kompozit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Kompozit 0–4 Kosmos Dolgoprudny

Kosmos Dolgoprudny beat Kompozit 4-0 in Second League - Group 3 on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Sportkompleks Znamja Truda in Orekhovo-Zuyevo.