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Kompozit vs FK Spartak Tambov — Second League - Group 3 2020

Kompozit
Kompozit
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FK Spartak Tambov
FK Spartak Tambov
6/6/2024Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 10Sportkompleks Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kompozit44%
×Draw25%
FK Spartak Tambov32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kompozit
1.59
FK Spartak Tambov
1.32

Kompozit creates 20% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 63 away

creates per match

Kompozit
2.05
FK Spartak Tambov
1.41

allows per match

Kompozit
1.23
FK Spartak Tambov
1.13

finishing

Kompozit+0.00on par
FK Spartak Tambov+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kompozit ↓

FK Spartak Tambov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kompozit or draw
68%
Kompozit or FK Spartak Tambov
75%
Draw or FK Spartak Tambov
56%

Winning margin

Kompozit wins by 2+
22%
FK Spartak Tambov wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kompozit 1+ goals
80%
Kompozit 2+ goals
47%
Kompozit 3+ goals
21%
FK Spartak Tambov 1+ goals
73%
FK Spartak Tambov 2+ goals
38%
FK Spartak Tambov 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kompozit (draw refunded)
58%
FK Spartak Tambov (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kompozit at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

FK Spartak Tambov away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kompozit attack 2.05 + FK Spartak Tambov defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.59

FK Spartak Tambov attack 1.41 + Kompozit defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kompozit scores more
44%
level
25%
FK Spartak Tambov scores more
32%

Kompozit at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kompozit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kompozit vs FK Spartak Tambov

Kompozit and FK Spartak Tambov drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 3 on June 6, 2024.

The match was played at Sportkompleks Znamja Truda in Orekhovo-Zuyevo.