Kompozit 1–2 Dinamo Vladivostok: Result & Stats

Kompozit

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Vladivostok

5/19/2024

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 7Stadion Znamya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kompozit44%

×Draw24%

Dinamo Vladivostok32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KompozitExpected goals in this matchDinamo Vladivostok

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.34

Kompozit

1.60

Dinamo Vladivostok

1.34

Kompozit creates 19% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 55 away

2.05

creates per match

1.45

1.23

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Kompozit

2.05

Dinamo Vladivostok

1.45

allows per match

Kompozit

1.23

Dinamo Vladivostok

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kompozit+0.00on par

Dinamo Vladivostok+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kompozit ↓

Dinamo Vladivostok →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kompozit or draw

68%

Kompozit or Dinamo Vladivostok

76%

Draw or Dinamo Vladivostok

56%

Winning margin

Kompozit wins by 2+

22%

Dinamo Vladivostok wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Kompozit 1+ goals

80%

Kompozit 2+ goals

47%

Kompozit 3+ goals

22%

Dinamo Vladivostok 1+ goals

74%

Dinamo Vladivostok 2+ goals

39%

Dinamo Vladivostok 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kompozit (draw refunded)

58%

Dinamo Vladivostok (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kompozit at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

Dinamo Vladivostok away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kompozit attack 2.05 + Dinamo Vladivostok defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.60

Dinamo Vladivostok attack 1.45 + Kompozit defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kompozit scores more

44%

level

24%

Dinamo Vladivostok scores more

32%

Kompozit at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kompozit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff