Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kompanii Marjamaa vs Team Helm — Cup 2026

Kompanii Marjamaa
Kompanii Marjamaa
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 1
Team Helm
Team Helmadvanced
D. Maanas 90'
F. Helm 82'
O. Vään 71', 69'
K. Türn 51', 22' (pen)
K. Ott 47'
7/5/2022CupCup · Round of 64Märjamaa Gümnaasiumi Staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kompanii Marjamaa32%
×Draw17%
Team Helm51%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kompanii Marjamaa
3.13
Team Helm
3.88

Team Helm creates 24% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Kompanii Marjamaa
2.25
Team Helm
3.75

allows per match

Kompanii Marjamaa
4.00
Team Helm
4.00

finishing

Kompanii Marjamaa+0.00on par
Team Helm+0.00on par

Total goals

97%Over
  • Over97
  • Under3

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

93%Yes
  • Yes93
  • No7

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kompanii Marjamaa ↓

Team Helm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–22%
1–33%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–35%
3–45%
4
4–00%
4–12%
4–23%
4–34%
4–44%

Most likely 2–3 (5%) · grid covers 60% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
97%3%3.5
91%9%4.5
80%20%

Double chance

Kompanii Marjamaa or draw
49%
Kompanii Marjamaa or Team Helm
83%
Draw or Team Helm
68%

Winning margin

Kompanii Marjamaa wins by 2+
18%
Team Helm wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Kompanii Marjamaa 1+ goals
95%
Kompanii Marjamaa 2+ goals
81%
Kompanii Marjamaa 3+ goals
59%
Team Helm 1+ goals
98%
Team Helm 2+ goals
89%
Team Helm 3+ goals
72%

Draw no bet

Kompanii Marjamaa (draw refunded)
39%
Team Helm (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
92%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kompanii Marjamaa at home — creates 2.25, concedes 4.00 · 8 matches

Team Helm away — creates 3.75, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kompanii Marjamaa attack 2.25 + Team Helm defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.13

Team Helm attack 3.75 + Kompanii Marjamaa defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kompanii Marjamaa scores more
32%
level
17%
Team Helm scores more
51%

Team Helm at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Team Helm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
K. TürnPenalty
47'
K. Ott
51'
K. Türn
69'
O. Vään
71'
O. Vään
82'
F. Helm
90'
D. Maanas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Kompanii Marjamaa 0–7 Team Helm

Team Helm beat Kompanii Marjamaa 7-0 in Cup on July 5, 2022.

Goals: K. Türn (22' pen, 51'), K. Ott (47'), O. Vään (69', 71'), F. Helm (82'), D. Maanas (90').

The match was played at Märjamaa Gümnaasiumi Staadion in Märjamaa.