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Kompanii Marjamaa vs Soccernet — Cup 2026

Kompanii Marjamaa
Kompanii Marjamaa
FT
4 – 1
Soccernet
Soccernet
8/6/2020CupCup · 32nd FinalsMärjamaa Gümnaasiumi Staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kompanii Marjamaa75%
×Draw12%
Soccernet13%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kompanii Marjamaa
5.54
Soccernet
2.50

Kompanii Marjamaa creates 122% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kompanii Marjamaa
2.25
Soccernet
1.00

allows per match

Kompanii Marjamaa
4.00
Soccernet
8.83

finishing

Kompanii Marjamaa+0.00on par
Soccernet+0.00on par

Total goals

98%Over
  • Over98
  • Under2

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

91%Yes
  • Yes91
  • No9

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kompanii Marjamaa ↓

Soccernet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–21%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–26%
4–35%
4–43%

Most likely 4–2 (6%) · grid covers 47% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
100%0%2.5
98%2%3.5
94%6%4.5
85%15%

Double chance

Kompanii Marjamaa or draw
87%
Kompanii Marjamaa or Soccernet
88%
Draw or Soccernet
25%

Winning margin

Kompanii Marjamaa wins by 2+
58%
Soccernet wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kompanii Marjamaa 1+ goals
99%
Kompanii Marjamaa 2+ goals
96%
Kompanii Marjamaa 3+ goals
87%
Soccernet 1+ goals
92%
Soccernet 2+ goals
71%
Soccernet 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Kompanii Marjamaa (draw refunded)
85%
Soccernet (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
90%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kompanii Marjamaa at home — creates 2.25, concedes 4.00 · 8 matches

Soccernet away — creates 1.00, concedes 8.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kompanii Marjamaa attack 2.25 + Soccernet defence 8.83 → ÷2 → 5.54

Soccernet attack 1.00 + Kompanii Marjamaa defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Kompanii Marjamaa scores more
75%
level
12%
Soccernet scores more
13%

Kompanii Marjamaa at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Kompanii Marjamaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kompanii Marjamaa vs Soccernet

Kompanii Marjamaa beat Soccernet 4-1 in Cup on August 6, 2020.

The match was played at Märjamaa Gümnaasiumi Staadion in Märjamaa.