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Kompanii Marjamaa vs JK Tabasalu — Cup 2026

Kompanii Marjamaa
Kompanii Marjamaa
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
JK Tabasalu
JK Tabasaluadvanced
K. Ennuste 59' (pen)
M. Vaherna 48'
8/27/2024CupCup · Round of 32Märjamaa Gümnaasiumi Staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kompanii Marjamaa13%
×Draw12%
JK Tabasalu75%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kompanii Marjamaa
1.91
JK Tabasalu
4.39

JK Tabasalu creates 130% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Kompanii Marjamaa
2.25
JK Tabasalu
4.78

allows per match

Kompanii Marjamaa
4.00
JK Tabasalu
1.56

finishing

Kompanii Marjamaa+0.00on par
JK Tabasalu+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kompanii Marjamaa ↓

JK Tabasalu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–33%
0–43%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–24%
1–36%
1–46%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–24%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–34%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 63% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
85%15%4.5
71%29%

Double chance

Kompanii Marjamaa or draw
25%
Kompanii Marjamaa or JK Tabasalu
88%
Draw or JK Tabasalu
87%

Winning margin

Kompanii Marjamaa wins by 2+
6%
JK Tabasalu wins by 2+
58%

Team goals

Kompanii Marjamaa 1+ goals
85%
Kompanii Marjamaa 2+ goals
57%
Kompanii Marjamaa 3+ goals
30%
JK Tabasalu 1+ goals
99%
JK Tabasalu 2+ goals
92%
JK Tabasalu 3+ goals
78%

Draw no bet

Kompanii Marjamaa (draw refunded)
15%
JK Tabasalu (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
82%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kompanii Marjamaa at home — creates 2.25, concedes 4.00 · 8 matches

JK Tabasalu away — creates 4.78, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kompanii Marjamaa attack 2.25 + JK Tabasalu defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.91

JK Tabasalu attack 4.78 + Kompanii Marjamaa defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 4.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Kompanii Marjamaa scores more
13%
level
12%
JK Tabasalu scores more
75%

JK Tabasalu at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "JK Tabasalu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
M. Vaherna
59'
K. EnnustePenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Kompanii Marjamaa 0–2 JK Tabasalu

JK Tabasalu beat Kompanii Marjamaa 2-0 in Cup on August 27, 2024.

Goals: M. Vaherna (48'), K. Ennuste (59' pen).

The match was played at Märjamaa Gümnaasiumi Staadion in Märjamaa.