Komeetat / Piuku 0–5 MiPK: Result & Stats

Komeetat / Piuku

0 – 5

MiPK

3/16/2024

Suomen Cup · 1st RoundVehkahalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Komeetat / Piuku10%

×Draw14%

MiPK76%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Komeetat / PiukuExpected goals in this matchMiPK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

2.80

Komeetat / Piuku

0.90

MiPK

2.80

MiPK creates 211% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

3.60

2.00

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Komeetat / Piuku

1.00

MiPK

3.60

allows per match

Komeetat / Piuku

2.00

MiPK

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Komeetat / Piuku+0.00on par

MiPK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Komeetat / Piuku ↓

MiPK →

0–03%

0–17%

0–210%

0–39%

0–46%

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–34%

2–43%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Komeetat / Piuku or draw

24%

Komeetat / Piuku or MiPK

86%

Draw or MiPK

90%

Winning margin

Komeetat / Piuku wins by 2+

MiPK wins by 2+

55%

Team goals

Komeetat / Piuku 1+ goals

59%

Komeetat / Piuku 2+ goals

23%

Komeetat / Piuku 3+ goals

MiPK 1+ goals

94%

MiPK 2+ goals

76%

MiPK 3+ goals

52%

Draw no bet

Komeetat / Piuku (draw refunded)

11%

MiPK (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Komeetat / Piuku at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

MiPK away — creates 3.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Komeetat / Piuku attack 1.00 + MiPK defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

MiPK attack 3.60 + Komeetat / Piuku defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 76%?"

Komeetat / Piuku scores more

10%

level

14%

MiPK scores more

76%

MiPK at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "MiPK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff