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Komárov vs Sokol Lom — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Komárov
Komárov
FT
1 – 7
HT: 1 – 2
Sokol Lom
Sokol Lom
10/1/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 9Hřiště FK Komárov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Komárov40%
×Draw22%
Sokol Lom38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Komárov
1.77
Sokol Lom
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 34 away

creates per match

Komárov
2.08
Sokol Lom
2.03

allows per match

Komárov
1.40
Sokol Lom
1.47

finishing

Komárov+0.00on par
Sokol Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Komárov ↓

Sokol Lom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Komárov or draw
62%
Komárov or Sokol Lom
78%
Draw or Sokol Lom
60%

Winning margin

Komárov wins by 2+
21%
Sokol Lom wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Komárov 1+ goals
83%
Komárov 2+ goals
53%
Komárov 3+ goals
26%
Sokol Lom 1+ goals
82%
Sokol Lom 2+ goals
51%
Sokol Lom 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Komárov (draw refunded)
52%
Sokol Lom (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Komárov at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.40 · 60 matches

Sokol Lom away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Komárov attack 2.08 + Sokol Lom defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sokol Lom attack 2.03 + Komárov defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Komárov scores more
40%
level
22%
Sokol Lom scores more
38%

Komárov at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Komárov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Komárov 1–7 Sokol Lom

Sokol Lom beat Komárov 7-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Hřiště FK Komárov in Komárov.