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Komárov vs Slavia Vejprnice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Komárov
Komárov
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Slavia Vejprnice
Slavia Vejprnice
5/3/20254. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 24Hřiště FK Komárov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Komárov69%
×Draw18%
Slavia Vejprnice14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Komárov
2.38
Slavia Vejprnice
0.96

Komárov creates 148% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

creates per match

Komárov
2.08
Slavia Vejprnice
0.53

allows per match

Komárov
1.40
Slavia Vejprnice
2.67

finishing

Komárov+0.00on par
Slavia Vejprnice+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Komárov ↓

Slavia Vejprnice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Komárov or draw
86%
Komárov or Slavia Vejprnice
82%
Draw or Slavia Vejprnice
31%

Winning margin

Komárov wins by 2+
46%
Slavia Vejprnice wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Komárov 1+ goals
91%
Komárov 2+ goals
68%
Komárov 3+ goals
42%
Slavia Vejprnice 1+ goals
62%
Slavia Vejprnice 2+ goals
25%
Slavia Vejprnice 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Komárov (draw refunded)
83%
Slavia Vejprnice (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Komárov at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.40 · 60 matches

Slavia Vejprnice away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Komárov attack 2.08 + Slavia Vejprnice defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.38

Slavia Vejprnice attack 0.53 + Komárov defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Komárov scores more
69%
level
18%
Slavia Vejprnice scores more
14%

Komárov at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Komárov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Komárov vs Slavia Vejprnice

Komárov beat Slavia Vejprnice 4-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Hřiště FK Komárov in Komárov.