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Komárov vs Jiskra Domažlice II — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Komárov
Komárov
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Jiskra Domažlice II
Jiskra Domažlice II
3/16/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 18Hřiště FK Komárov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Komárov56%
×Draw20%
Jiskra Domažlice II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Komárov
2.31
Jiskra Domažlice II
1.49

Komárov creates 55% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

creates per match

Komárov
2.08
Jiskra Domažlice II
1.58

allows per match

Komárov
1.40
Jiskra Domažlice II
2.55

finishing

Komárov+0.00on par
Jiskra Domažlice II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Komárov ↓

Jiskra Domažlice II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Komárov or draw
76%
Komárov or Jiskra Domažlice II
80%
Draw or Jiskra Domažlice II
44%

Winning margin

Komárov wins by 2+
34%
Jiskra Domažlice II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Komárov 1+ goals
90%
Komárov 2+ goals
67%
Komárov 3+ goals
40%
Jiskra Domažlice II 1+ goals
77%
Jiskra Domažlice II 2+ goals
44%
Jiskra Domažlice II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Komárov (draw refunded)
69%
Jiskra Domažlice II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Komárov at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.40 · 60 matches

Jiskra Domažlice II away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.55 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Komárov attack 2.08 + Jiskra Domažlice II defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.31

Jiskra Domažlice II attack 1.58 + Komárov defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Komárov scores more
56%
level
20%
Jiskra Domažlice II scores more
24%

Komárov at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Komárov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Komárov vs Jiskra Domažlice II

Komárov beat Jiskra Domažlice II 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Hřiště FK Komárov in Komárov.