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Komárov vs Jindřichův Hradec — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Komárov
Komárov
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
3/30/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 20Hřiště FK Komárov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Komárov60%
×Draw20%
Jindřichův Hradec20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Komárov
2.29
Jindřichův Hradec
1.27

Komárov creates 80% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 56 away

creates per match

Komárov
2.08
Jindřichův Hradec
1.14

allows per match

Komárov
1.40
Jindřichův Hradec
2.50

finishing

Komárov+0.00on par
Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Komárov ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Komárov or draw
80%
Komárov or Jindřichův Hradec
80%
Draw or Jindřichův Hradec
40%

Winning margin

Komárov wins by 2+
38%
Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Komárov 1+ goals
90%
Komárov 2+ goals
66%
Komárov 3+ goals
40%
Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
72%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
36%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Komárov (draw refunded)
75%
Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Komárov at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.40 · 60 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.50 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Komárov attack 2.08 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.29

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.14 + Komárov defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Komárov scores more
60%
level
20%
Jindřichův Hradec scores more
20%

Komárov at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Komárov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Komárov 4 – 2 Jindřichův Hradec

Komárov beat Jindřichův Hradec 4-2 in 4. liga - Divizie A on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Hřiště FK Komárov in Komárov.