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Komárov vs Hořovicko — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Komárov
Komárov
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hořovicko
Hořovicko
9/28/20244. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 8Hřiště FK Komárov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Komárov53%
×Draw22%
Hořovicko25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Komárov
2.00
Hořovicko
1.33

Komárov creates 50% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 86 away

creates per match

Komárov
2.08
Hořovicko
1.27

allows per match

Komárov
1.40
Hořovicko
1.93

finishing

Komárov+0.00on par
Hořovicko+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Komárov ↓

Hořovicko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Komárov or draw
75%
Komárov or Hořovicko
78%
Draw or Hořovicko
47%

Winning margin

Komárov wins by 2+
31%
Hořovicko wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Komárov 1+ goals
86%
Komárov 2+ goals
59%
Komárov 3+ goals
32%
Hořovicko 1+ goals
74%
Hořovicko 2+ goals
38%
Hořovicko 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Komárov (draw refunded)
68%
Hořovicko (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Komárov at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.40 · 60 matches

Hořovicko away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.93 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Komárov attack 2.08 + Hořovicko defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.00

Hořovicko attack 1.27 + Komárov defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Komárov scores more
53%
level
22%
Hořovicko scores more
25%

Komárov at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Komárov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Komárov vs Hořovicko

Komárov beat Hořovicko 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Hřiště FK Komárov in Komárov.