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Komárom vs Tatabánya — NB III - Southwest 2019

Komárom
Komárom
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tatabánya
Tatabánya
3/19/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 26MOLAJ Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Komárom36%
×Draw26%
Tatabánya38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Komárom
1.35
Tatabánya
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 57 away

creates per match

Komárom
1.62
Tatabánya
1.35

allows per match

Komárom
1.42
Tatabánya
1.07

finishing

Komárom+0.00on par
Tatabánya+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Komárom ↓

Tatabánya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Komárom or draw
62%
Komárom or Tatabánya
74%
Draw or Tatabánya
64%

Winning margin

Komárom wins by 2+
16%
Tatabánya wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Komárom 1+ goals
74%
Komárom 2+ goals
39%
Komárom 3+ goals
15%
Tatabánya 1+ goals
75%
Tatabánya 2+ goals
40%
Tatabánya 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Komárom (draw refunded)
49%
Tatabánya (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Komárom at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.42 · 66 matches

Tatabánya away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Komárom attack 1.62 + Tatabánya defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.35

Tatabánya attack 1.35 + Komárom defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Komárom scores more
36%
level
26%
Tatabánya scores more
38%

Tatabánya at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tatabánya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Komárom 0–2 Tatabánya

Tatabánya beat Komárom 2-0 in NB III - Southwest on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at MOLAJ Sporttelep in Komárom.