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Komárom vs SC Sopron — NB III - Northwest 2019

Komárom
Komárom
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
SC Sopron
SC Sopron
3/8/2026NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Northwest - 19MOLAJ Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Komárom48%
×Draw25%
SC Sopron28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Komárom
1.63
SC Sopron
1.18

Komárom creates 38% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Komárom
1.64
SC Sopron
1.07

allows per match

Komárom
1.29
SC Sopron
1.62

finishing

Komárom+0.00on par
SC Sopron+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Komárom ↓

SC Sopron →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Komárom or draw
72%
Komárom or SC Sopron
75%
Draw or SC Sopron
52%

Winning margin

Komárom wins by 2+
25%
SC Sopron wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Komárom 1+ goals
80%
Komárom 2+ goals
48%
Komárom 3+ goals
22%
SC Sopron 1+ goals
69%
SC Sopron 2+ goals
33%
SC Sopron 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Komárom (draw refunded)
63%
SC Sopron (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Komárom at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.29 · 45 matches

SC Sopron away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.62 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Komárom attack 1.64 + SC Sopron defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.63

SC Sopron attack 1.07 + Komárom defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Komárom scores more
48%
level
25%
SC Sopron scores more
28%

Komárom at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Komárom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Komárom vs SC Sopron

Komárom beat SC Sopron 1-0 in NB III - Northwest on March 8, 2026.

The match was played at MOLAJ Sporttelep in Komárom.